Algiers Under High Tension: Anticipated Strategies of the Algerian Regime Facing Internal and External Risks

As Algeria braces for potential diplomatic, economic, and social shocks, the regime is deploying a wartime-like strategy against what it calls foreign destabilization efforts. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune’s warning on April 25 in Béchar about “difficult times,” along with the recent adoption of the general mobilization law and a media campaign against “disinformation,” outlines a multi-faceted defensive approach.

Internal Hardening: Towards a Preventive Dictatorship?

Reinforcing the Repressive Legal Framework
The upcoming implementation decrees for the general mobilization law could give the authorities expanded control over information. A vague redefinition of “sensitive information” could enable widespread repression of political opposition, journalists, and internet users.
A draft law on “digital sovereignty” could also emerge, targeting VPNs, data localization, and increased surveillance of electronic communications, inspired by Chinese and Iranian models.

Targeted Administrative Reorganization
The regime may reshuffle sensitive sectors (education, energy, telecoms), appointing figures close to the security apparatus. Universities could become strategic ground, with ideologically aligned rectors and discreet censorship of subjects considered subversive (political science, international law, contemporary history).

Western Sahara Issue: An Imminent Breaking Point

Anticipating a Diplomatic Defeat
Two major threats loom over Algeria:

• The possible listing of the Polisario Front as a terrorist organization by the United States.

• Algeria’s exclusion from the Arab League summit in Baghdad, signaling growing diplomatic isolation.
  These setbacks, if simultaneous, could trigger a major political crisis and renewed domestic unrest, especially considering Algeria has invested over $500 billion in the conflict since 1975.

Preemptive Control of Digital Space
Aware of the explosive potential of social networks, the regime is planning stricter content control. Should Morocco achieve diplomatic success, online confrontations between the two nations’ users could lead to a symbolic loss of control for Algiers.

Economy on Edge: A Renter State at the End of Its Cycle

Structural Vulnerabilities
Algeria’s economy still depends over 95% on hydrocarbons. Youth unemployment averages 30%, reaching 50% in some areas. Territorial inequalities, over-bureaucracy, and a weak productive sector make the country highly vulnerable to external shocks (e.g., gas price drops or political crises).

Erosion of the Redistribution Model
Inflation exceeds 10%, subsidies are shrinking, and public services are deteriorating. The regime can no longer buy social peace, and an economic crisis could spark widespread unrest.

Social Factors: A Smoldering Fire

The Hirak Precedent
Algerian society remembers its capacity for mobilization (2019–2021). The elements that sustained the Hirak movement—social media, unifying discourse, and strategic pacifism—remain active beneath the surface.

Youth, a Sleeping Volcano
With over 54% of the population under 30, this connected, disillusioned, and economically excluded generation could reignite protest. The regime is particularly wary, hence the plans for tighter digital control.

Geopolitical Dimension: The Military as Symbolic Shield

Partial Mobilization at the Borders?
Large-scale military exercises might be organized near border zones (Tindouf, Béchar) to respond to regional tensions. The regime could use these maneuvers to showcase its “resilience” against external threats and rally public opinion around national unity.

Strategic Rapprochement with Moscow and Beijing
A possible visit by Tebboune to Russia or China could signal a diplomatic pivot. Algeria would aim to counterbalance its Arab and Western isolation by forming alternative alliances, notably with South Africa.

Information Control: Locking Down Perception

Crackdown on Digital Platforms
The regime could force tech giants to open local offices, slow or block certain platforms, or deploy a national automated surveillance system.

Creation of a Sovereign Informational Ecosystem
Plans may include launching Algerian social networks, national video platforms, a local search engine, and strengthened state media—with technical support from China, Iran, or Russia.

Scenarios of Disruption: Collapse or Continuity?

Toward an Accelerated Collapse?
A major diplomatic defeat combined with an economic crisis could trigger a terminal legitimacy crisis. Spontaneous uprisings in marginalized areas (South, Highlands) could lead to a collapse reminiscent of Bouteflika’s fall in 2019—but in a more chaotic context.

The Military Factor
Internal fractures within the army or a succession crisis if President Tebboune fails to perform could accelerate a regime shift. General Chengriha currently holds the reins, but his authority could be challenged.

Indicators to Watch

• Ministerial reshuffles in Interior, Communication, or Digital Affairs

• Dramatic presidential speeches invoking an “existential threat”

• Targeted social media slowdowns or outages

• Waves of arrests of journalists or influencers

• Unusual military movements

• Local social mobilizations in public sectors or rural areas

Conclusion
The Algerian regime appears to be bracing for multidimensional turbulence: regional loss of influence, risk of economic collapse, and rising social tensions. In response, it is opting for a strategy of preventive lockdown: information control, military posturing, and alternative diplomacy. However, this could prove counterproductive and trigger an uncontrollable spiral. A boomerang effect is likely, as Algerian society remains highly sensitive to signals of national humiliation—particularly on the Western Sahara issue. Recent history has shown that when Algerians perceive their national dignity to be at stake, their response can be massive, spontaneous, and destabilizing. The regime knows this—and it trembles.