The End of Algeria’s 1992 Project

By: Talmsani Ali

In Algeria, on February 22, 2019, a national popular revolution erupted due to the accumulation of political deadlocks since 1999, the loss of economic identity, and the catastrophic miscalculations of the military regime. This revolution was characterized by a genuine desire to put an end to a system of governance that had lost all legitimacy. As usual, the authorities resorted to quelling the revolution and maintaining the status quo through repression, returning to Soviet-style methods of silencing dissent with temporary and superficial measures, ignoring the people’s demands by relying on a vast security apparatus created by the intelligence services, without any strategy other than preventing any natural response to the deteriorating situation.

What the authorities failed to anticipate were the geopolitical transformations. On the Arab front, their lack of awareness and failure to understand these changes led to Algeria’s isolation and a blow to the Western Sahara issue. This became evident when the Arab League refused to mention the issue, supporting Morocco on the grounds that it was a regional conflict, not a principled one. This effectively eliminated Algeria’s diplomatic influence within the Arab world.

In another shift, Sahel countries underwent regime changes with the help of Russia, pushing back against the Franco-Algerian dominance in the region. This stripped Algeria of its African depth. As a result, Algeria lost political influence abroad, further exacerbating its already crumbling internal situation. The Algerian authorities sought a political solution by joining BRICS, which is leading the largest international alliance in modern history. Studies suggest that BRICS could lead to a new international system, changing the post-World War II and post-Soviet collapse dynamics.

However, BRICS rejected Algeria’s membership application twice, a significant blow to the Algerian regime. This failure was compounded by Russia’s rejection of Algeria’s policies, leaving Algeria politically isolated and on the verge of security collapse. For decades, Russia had been Algeria’s strategic and defense backbone.

The blow that truly destabilized the Algerian regime was when the European Union, especially France, decided to break ties with Algeria in favor of a strategic partnership with Morocco. This severed the last connection between France and Algeria. This decision plunged Algeria into a state of insecurity and instability, especially with Morocco poised to resolve the Western Sahara issue in its favor, effectively ending Algerian-French relations permanently.

Domestically, the Algerian authorities responded with increased repression of both the media and the public, creating a facade of stability with military parades aimed at calming an increasingly restless population. Everyone knows that Algeria’s military power is meaningless in light of its economic collapse and lack of geopolitical alliances, with an internal opposition growing against the regime.

The only battle the Algerian authorities are fighting is against their own failure to establish political, economic, and geopolitical balance that could allow the country to grow and stabilize. Algeria is heading into 2025 without any clear political identity—Arab, African, or global. Without the Western Sahara or Palestinian causes, and without any indicators of overcoming its crisis.

The Algerian regime, which relies on a military oligarchy, continues to produce corrupt systems in education, administration, health, trade, and tourism, ignoring the worsening crises of youth unemployment and housing shortages. Algeria is moving toward a dictatorial model in facing the challenges of the 21st century.

Given these realities, observers see Algeria entering the last quarter of the century confronting modern problems with outdated Russian weapons, raising questions about the rationality of those steering the country.

After this analysis, we can conclude that Algeria is in a state of “disorder,” as noted by former Prime Minister Mouloud Hamrouche. After more than 30 years of social and political decay, it seems that the Algerian regime has reached its end. Falling oil and gas prices, a deteriorating domestic front, and worsening external relations, especially with the rise of right-wing governments in most Western countries, all indicate a critical phase.

The following scenarios seem realistic for Algeria:

  1. Military coup: An internal explosion within the military establishment due to mounting pressures.
  2. Popular uprising: An uncontrollable revolution that fully achieves the people’s demands.
  3. Exporting the crisis externally: Dragging Algeria into a military-style external conflict.

The survival of the Algerian regime under these circumstances would be a historical anomaly never seen before.

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