Algeria Expels Hundreds of Migrants to Niger and Escalates Tensions with Sahel Countries
In a recent report, the International Crisis Group warned of escalating tensions between Algeria and Mali following the drone downing incident, stating that the current crisis could develop into an open military confrontation due to the lack of security coordination and growing regional divisions.
According to the report, Algeria missed a strategic opportunity to increase its influence in the Sahel region after France’s withdrawal from Operation Barkhane in November 2022. The report notes that while Algeria was expected to fill the security vacuum, Mali chose to forge a closer alliance with Russia and the countries of the AES group, thus limiting Algeria’s role as a primary security partner in the region.
The report also highlights Algeria’s growing concerns about refugee flows and the increasing roles of countries like Turkey, Iran, and Morocco, especially after the notable security rapprochement between Rabat and Bamako, which led to the first meeting of the joint military committee between the two countries in February 2025.
In this context, the report warned that continued escalation, particularly in light of Mali’s use of drones against armed groups in the north, could lead to misstrikes or border violations, threatening both civilian and military lives. The report reminded of the July 2024 incident, where airstrikes attributed to the Malian army killed several civilians, including Nigerian, Chadian, and Sudanese prospectors.
The report also pointed out that the deterioration of relations between Algeria and Mali reduces the chances of a political solution in northern Mali, particularly after Mali withdrew from the Algiers Agreement mediation, which could push some Tuareg factions to harden their stance or ally with jihadist groups.
The International Crisis Group believes that this crisis is not isolated but fits into a more fragmented regional landscape, exacerbated by the exit of AES countries from ECOWAS and the rising tensions between Morocco and Algeria. The report noted that this situation could be exploited by extremist groups operating in security vacuums and taking advantage of the weak coordination between African capitals.
Regarding ways to reduce tensions, the report stressed the importance of returning to diplomacy, with mutual recognition of security interests, and avoiding a logic of imposition or denial. It also called for strengthening African mediation, suggesting that the President of the African Union appoint a high-level mediator, such as former Ghanaian President John Mahama, or involve South Africa for its diplomatic weight.
The report also mentioned the possibility of revitalizing the Algerian-Malian joint committee, established in 2005, as a platform for exchanging security information, coordinating efforts to combat terrorism, and organizing border crossings. It called for the involvement of influential international powers, such as Russia, to support these initiatives and prevent the region from descending further into chaos.
